The newly released revised and updated Integrated Resource Plan, now referred to as IRP 2024, reflects some significant changes from the updated plan (IRP 2023) initially presented by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), which raised serious questions and objections from a broad spectrum of industry stakeholders.
From left: SAWEA CEO, Niveshen Govender, Nomawethu Qase, Director: New & Renewable Energy at the DMRE, Dr Zwanani Titus Mathe, CEO of SANEDI, and Dr Rethabile Melamu, CEO of the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA).
The new plan incorporates significant changes in the framework, presenting a base case and various scenarios, and notably in assumptions relating Eskom’s now much improved energy availability factor, which changes the outlook on energy security going forward – to 2050 – notwithstanding the decline in coal fired power generation as planned shutdowns of some of Eskom’s older power plants take effect over the mid to longer term.
The revised IRP anticipates a “committed capacity” of 38.5 GW of new generation coming online by 2030. This includes additional public and private power generation, as well as Eskom’s planned projects, in new solar and wind energy generation, plus battery energy storage. A higher level of combined cycle gas turbine generation is expected for the period from 2031 to 2050.
Among other significant shifts, the revised plan sees a marked upturn in the allocation for onshore wind energy generation. This has been welcomed by SAWEA – the South African Wind Energy Association. From an unexplained minimal allocation in IRP 2023, a total of 76.4 GW of wind energy is now provided for in the revised plan.
SAWEA commended the multidisciplinary stakeholder engagement process on the revised IRP 2024 and the public participation process, led by the Ministry of Electricity & Energy and supported by Eskom, NTCSA and SANEDI.
The association said in a statement that the wind industry welcomes the significant reconsideration of wind energy as the government aligns its energy planning with broader national policies and objectives. “SAWEA actively contributed to the targeted workshops, making substantive submissions, and is pleased to see that the input assumptions have been remodelled to reflect these contributions.
“It is anticipated that wind energy will contribute between 69 GW and 76 GW across all the planned scenarios. This shows the value and benefit of wind energy in contributing to energy security, as well as through its cost, environmental and social impacts.”
“We are excited to see that wind energy will feature as the prevalent technology in South Africa’s future energy mix. This allows the industry to respond with plans to build capacity in the long term to accelerate the development of wind energy as part of the energy mix,” says Niveshen Govender, Chief Executive Officer of SAWEA.
SAWEA also notes that as well as ongoing new generation capacity initiatives, the draft IRP 2024 considers the NTCSA’s updated Transmission Development Plan (TDP) providing a more holistic view of the system needs.
“Although it looks like the plan has been developed with consideration given to transmission, the question that remains is how the NTCSA will integrate the ambitious new generation capacity plans effectively. This is particularly critical given the severe impact of grid constraints on wind energy in wind-rich areas over the past three years.”
Looking ahead, SAWEA awaits the finalisation of IRP 2024 in the new year, intended for March 2025. “We remain committed to supporting its implementation and achieving South Africa’s climate and energy objectives through the continued growth of wind energy,” Govender says.
For more information visit: https://sawea.org.za/