At a media briefing on 22 April 2026, Eskom shared its Winter Outlook for the period 1 April to 31 August 2026. The utility enters the 2026 winter season with a resilient power system, projecting a winter period of continued energy stability. This positive outlook follows the successful conclusion of the summer period, during which the national grid operated with ongoing sustained reliability. With the Generation Recovery Plan embedded in day‑to‑day operations, Eskom has moved beyond short‑term recovery into a phase of stability and sustained energy security and aims to ensure that homes, businesses and industries remain powered through the peak winter months.
Eskom maintained a consistent energy supply of 98.9% through the past Financial Year (1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026), a marked improvement from 9% two years ago, and this reflects the fundamental strengthening of generation performance, operational discipline and system resilience.
The winter outlook anticipates improved reliability and availability across the generation fleet. Additional capacity has been secured primarily through a 5.2 GW reduction in unplanned losses, supplemented by 1.1 GW from demand‑side management programmes, enabling Eskom to meet national demand this winter. On this basis, it has a surplus peak capacity of about 6 GW over the winter period.
These improvements allow Eskom to lower its base‑case assumption for unplanned outages to around 12 GW, compared to 13 GW in the previous winter outlook. Even under higher‑stress conditions, where unplanned losses approach 14 GW, the system is expected to remain resilient, and no load shedding is anticipated under the planned-for scenarios.
The 2026 Winter Outlook takes into account Eskom’s expanded customer base. During FY2026, the utility completed 67 578 new household connections, with a further 2 119 households supplied through distributed energy resources (DERs) in the form of microgrids, which help reduce pressure on the national grid, particularly during peak periods. Despite supplying electricity to these additional customers compared to the previous winter, improved generation reliability, reduced unplanned losses, and strengthened operational buffers support a stable winter outlook, with sufficient capacity to meet expected demand.
“Eskom, and South Africa, now have a stable electricity platform to operate and grow from. This enables us to integrate renewable energy sources as per the 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for the maintenance of energy security in the future. Eskom is consciously assessing the new capacity build rate across all required technologies as this, along with other socio-economic conditions, will be key in determining the transition of the coal fired power stations,” said Eskom Group Chief Executive, Dan Marokane.
“It was very difficult to embed cost savings when our generation fleet was unstable. Today, we have dramatically reduced diesel dependency and saved R26.9 billion compared to FY2023. These savings are a result of strengthened maintenance discipline and project delivery. Every megawatt we return contributes towards economic growth. The restoration of a consistent baseload electricity supply has further enabled Eskom to support industries in distress, particularly the ferrochrome industry, and to play a role in preventing job losses. The country has invested in Eskom, and we are continuously working to restore this national asset to full health; it is a resource that all citizens have supported," said Eskom Group Executive for Generation, Bheki Nxumalo.
Sustained performance improvements
Since March 2023, the stability progressively achieved is a direct outcome of the Generation Recovery Plan, which has delivered sustained, year‑on‑year improvements in system performance.
- Diesel expenditure reduced by R26.9 billion: Reduced reliance on open‑cycle gas turbine (OCGT) emergency peaking power resulted in diesel expenditure in FY2026 being at ~R6.4 billion, which is R26.9 billion lower than FY2023, and ~R10 billion lower year on year compared to FY2025.
- Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improved by ~10.8%: The EAF has improved from 54.55% in FY2023 to ~65.35% in FY2026, a gain of ~10.8%, reflecting stronger generation reliability and power system stability. EAF reached or exceeded 70% on more than 83 occasions during FY26.
- Unplanned losses, reduced by ~7.1 GW: Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) measuring unplanned losses, was reduced by ~7.1 GW, declining from 16.5 GW to ~9.1 GW as at 31 March 2026, a reduction exceeding one‑and‑a‑half times the capacity of Kusile Power Station.
- Planned maintenance increased, averaging 5.4 GW: Planned maintenance increasing from an average of 4.7 GW in FY2023 to peaks of around 8.0 GW, with an annual average of 5.4 GW in FY2026, strengthening long‑term plant reliability while temporarily reducing available capacity.
Together, these improvements supported a period, as of today, of 341 consecutive days without loadshedding.
Marokane also spoke of Eskom’s progress in strengthening its financial, governance and institutional capabilities – and he looked to the path ahead in terms of decisions to be made for energy security and the utility’s transition to Net Zero.
At the briefing, further inputs from Agnes Mlambo, Acting Group Executive for Distribution, and Monde Bala, CEO of NTCSA outlined the progress made in distribution and transmission – and the challenges ahead. See the June edition of Electricity + Control for more insights.
For more information visit: www.eskom.co.za