Over the past 18 months, I have been one of those guilty of routine ‘doom scrolling’, tracking the COVID numbers across the world in a vain attempt to somehow feel ‘in control’; perhaps to get some sense of when it all may end. We have all been subjected to the graphs of exponential growth: the rapid rise; the slowing down of the infection as lockdown measures start to take effect; the peak of the curve at the highest rate; and the turning point, when infection rates begin to fall again.
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I still remember my school mathematics, where we learnt how to differentiate polynomials to determine the maximum or minimum y-values of a curve. Would it be comforting if the COVID Pandemic followed a predictable polynomial path? Perhaps not. At least we know we can influence the infection rates and their peaks by changing our behaviour and developing vaccines.
I also vaguely remember having to study linear programming and optimisation modelling, which involve finding the best output value for a problem or situation that could be framed as a mathematical relationship. Minimising total costs and maximising profit is a common example. Optimisation, and I am sure the principles involved, are now part and parcel of the IIoT, data analysis, machine learning, artificial intelligence and diagnostics, where the pursuit of optimum efficiency, productivity, reliability and a host of other industrial success imperatives becomes the key goal.
Another graph I remember well was presented back in 2006 by the ex-vice president of the US, Al Gore, in his campaign to educate people about global warming. Al Gore stood on a ladder to highlight how fast and how high the CO2 concentration in our atmosphere had risen. I confess to have rolled my eyes at the theatrics of his presentation, but the documentary was extraordinarily successful in highlighting the problem.
Yet in the 15 years since, little has changed.
At the recent G7 summit of the world’s seven largest ‘advanced’ economies in Cornwall, UK, it emerged that CO2 is now at a higher level in the atmosphere than at any point in the last four million years – and greenhouse gas emissions are still rising. The summit identified “a dangerous tipping point: if the world fails to act now, the future will be changed beyond anything the coronavirus pandemic has brought about”.
Climate economist, Lord Stern believes that, in terms of recovery from the COVID pandemic: “This is a crucial moment in history. Either we recover in a strong and sustainable way, or we do not. We are at a real fork in the road. This decade is decisive.”
According to latest global warming science, greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 if the world is to stay within the 1.5 °C global heating threshold, beyond which extreme weather will take hold with “swathes of the world facing water stress and heatwaves”.
Stern also notes that, while the cost of renewable energy has plunged and technology such as electric vehicles has increased, progress on cutting emissions overall has been painfully slow and: “…this next decade could be just as bad or worse, if we make the wrong choices”.
In spite of all the urgency to mitigate against global warming, Ian Fraser writing in this issue on behalf of the African Hydrogen Partnership (AHP) has found himself having to refute ongoing attacks on the green economy. Arguing in favour of hydrogen as an energy carrier and a future fuel, he notes that “once the hydrogen economy is ubiquitous, the energy to mine materials and to manufacture, provide and transport the support equipment will all also come from renewables, via the green hydrogen economy. It should be noted that virtually none of these materials will be consumed and almost all will be recyclable.”
Innovative Engineering in this issue also features hydrogen as a key aspect of the transition to a green economy. Gravitricity MD, Charlie Blair, describes an extension to his company’s gravity-based energy storage solution, which involves sealing the mine shaft used to create a pressure vessel to store hydrogen gas. “Renewable energy generation is already creating periods of surpluses of energy … so grid-connected wind turbines are routinely being turned off to keep the grid balanced. Instead of turning these turbines off, we believe surplus electricity could be redirected into hydrogen electrolysers to make ‘free’ hydrogen fuel instead of wasting the generation capacity,” he explains.
Like the COVID infection rate, CO2 emissions can be mitigated by a combination of behaviour change and technology development. We have all of the analytical tools necessary to predict the consequences of neglecting to act, and to accurately track the effects of our combined actions.
All we need to do is to reset our data analytics and optimisations criteria towards optimising the health of our Environment. This may seem like a huge mindset shift from the economic recovery imperative, but our economic wellbeing will surely and predictably be bleak should we fail to act.