Metals Focus, a leading precious metals consultancy, has published its Gold Focus 2025, offering a comprehensive analysis of the global gold market. This flagship annual report includes historical, supply-demand data from 2016 to 2024 and provides a detailed forecast for 2025.
Outlook for 2025:
- Gold Supply: Gains in mine production to a new high will lift total supply by 1% in 2025.
- Gold Demand: Total demand is projected to fall by 9% in 2025, led by a double-digit drop in jewellery demand.
- Price Outlook: Gold is expected to achieve a fresh all-time high later this year, on the back of economic uncertainty centred around US policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions, ongoing portfolio diversification, growing concerns about US debt and robust central bank gold demand. The annual average gold price is forecast to surge by 35% to a new record high of $3,210 in 2025.
Highlights of the Gold Focus include:
- Official Sector Purchases: Net official sector purchases achieved a new all-time high of 1,086 tonnes (“t”) in 2024. Ongoing de-dollarisation continued to encourage central banks to raise their allocations to gold. Gross sales fell sharply in 2024, due to the absence of large disposals, such as those by Turkey in 2023. Ample macroeconomic uncertainties should keep net official sector buying elevated in 2025, at an estimated 1,000t.
- Investment: Institutional investment remained positive, chiefly on the back of interest rate expectations and actual rate cuts. Heightened geopolitical turmoil, concerns about US debt and sharp gains in US equities also underpinned diversification inflows into gold. Despite record high prices, retail investment held up, as strong demand from Asian investors mitigated heavy losses in western markets.
- Mine Supply: Total mined gold production rose 0.6% year on year (“y/y”) to 3,661t in 2024, reaching an all-time high, underpinned by growth in Mexico, Canada and Ghana. Global all-in sustaining costs climbed 8% y/y to $1,399 per oz as higher gold prices increased royalty payments and inflationary pressures persisted. This year, gold mine output is expected to again rise, by 1%, to a fresh record high of 3,694t as new mines come onstream.
- Recycling: Recycling in 2024 rose 11% to 1,368t, a 12-year high. Much came from China’s 26% surge, but most regions saw double-digit, price-led growth. Indian scrap fell due to growth in gold loans, while gains elsewhere were curbed by limited near-market stocks, the appeal of safe haven assets and bullish price expectations. Scrap in 2025 is forecast to be unchanged, despite the price rise, due to many of the above constraints
- Jewellery: Jewellery fabrication in 2024 fell a notable 9%, but that was mostly China-driven and, excluding that country, demand was fairly resilient, only dropping by 1% in the face of the 23% price rise. Jewellery's net call on the bullion market fell by a much steeper 34% due to the 11% rise in recycling. Fabrication losses are expected to accelerate to 16% in 2025 as gold's rally severely impacts price-sensitive markets, including India.
- Industrial: Electronics offtake rose by 9% in 2024 due to a rebound in shipments of electronic products, manufacturing capacity expansion and the AI boom. Electronics demand is forecast to grow by 3% in 2025 despite tariff challenges. Decorative and other industrial offtake fell by 1% in 2024 due to losses in the key Indian and Italian markets. Dental demand fell by a further 5% last year due to ongoing structural losses.
Extract from the report: “Gold also found strong support from continued heavy central bank buying. Net official sector purchases reached a new record of 1,086t in 2024. Diversification away from the US dollar, whether from a portfolio/reserve management perspective or for geopolitical reasons, drove this trend. Gold’s strong performance and its role as a non-liability-bearing reserve asset continued to drive central banks towards the metal. Monetary policy also played a role.
“Gold’s underlying fundamentals held up well in 2024, despite the higher average price. Central bank buying, as noted above, stood out once again. Mine production rose marginally, while recycling volumes increased by 11%, encouraged by higher prices. Jewellery demand declined by 9% - a modest drop compared to the 23% price rise - highlighting still-healthy consumer appetite. Bar and coin investment was flat overall, but this concealed stark regional divergence: Western and Middle Eastern markets suffered sharp declines, while demand rose solidly across South and East Asia. Meanwhile, industrial fabrication posted a decent gain, driven by robust electronics sector demand.
“Looking to 2025, gold’s stellar performance has continued. Prices have already broken through new all-time highs, fuelled by a reinforcement - and in some cases, intensification - of 2024’s key drivers. Among these, US trade policy under President Trump has become a major catalyst. The reintroduction of tariffs and growing fears of a trade war have further undermined confidence in the global economic outlook. In the US, this has combined with cyclical concerns, raising the risk of recession and unnerving investors. Confidence in the US dollar has also taken a hit, not just from trade and foreign policy volatility, but also due to mounting concerns about the country’s fiscal trajectory. Ballooning debt and indications that the new administration’s policies may exacerbate rather than address the issue have heightened alarm. Expectations of further Fed easing later this year have also lent support to gold at the margin. All told, the backdrop for gold remains broadly positive and we expect further all-time records to be achieved later in the year.”
Philip Newman, Managing Director of Metals Focus, commented: “We are pleased to present Gold Focus 2025, our flagship report offering an in-depth analysis of the gold market. I want to acknowledge the dedicated team at Metals Focus for their continued commitment to delivering this comprehensive study.
“In 2024, central banks once again played a pivotal role, with net official sector purchases reaching a new all-time high. This trend reflects continued de-dollarisation and a strategic pivot toward safe-haven assets, whether for portfolio diversification, reserve management, or geopolitical considerations.
“While bar and coin investment remained broadly flat, this masked sharp regional contrasts: strong gains in South and East Asia offset steep declines in Western and Middle Eastern markets. Despite higher prices, physical demand from consumers and private investors held up better than expected, and in value terms, demand rose across the board, highlighting gold’s enduring appeal.
“Jewellery consumption fell notably, particularly in China, while recycling saw a double-digit rise. Meanwhile, mine production set a new record and is poised to grow further in 2025. Retail investment remained resilient, especially across Asia, and institutional flows were broadly supportive.
"Looking ahead, we expect gold to break new ground in 2025. Macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated geopolitical risks are likely to sustain investor interest. While volatility and corrections are inevitable given speculative activity, we anticipate that dips will be bought, reinforcing an upward trend. We forecast a record average price of $3,210 – a level that would finally surpass the real terms peak from 1980.”