Page 8 - Chemical Technology

special report
Estimating actual recoverable yields is filled with
uncertainty and some of these wells may become
alarmingly unproductive rather early. That, though, is a
problem for investors.
What of the immediate environmental concerns
to water and the potential for earthquakes? While it
is true that such risks exist, it is also true that much
greater scrutiny on drilling behaviour has resulted
in improved techniques and greater safety. Methane
emissions can be prevented. Fracking fluid entering
groundwater can be prevented. Even slippage, which
can cause small localized earthquakes, can be man-
aged and monitored.
All of which encouraged the British government –
that bastion of anti-development – to drop its mora-
torium on fracking and allow drilling to proceed at the
end of 2012.
In South Africa, where the moratorium on frack-
ing has also been lifted, the vast quantities of water
required are a primary limitation. In the Karoo, where
water is extremely scarce, such questions have yet to
be answered appropriately. Strangely, concerns relat-
ing to water have only been about contamination and
are easy to address: fracking must begin some 300 to
600 metres below the water table in order to isolate
any seepage. Where the millions of litres required to
conduct fracking are to come from is another matter.
The astonishing thing is just how much recoverable
gas there is using today’s technology: 1 275 trillion
cubic feet in China, 862 in the US, 774 in Argentina,
681 in Mexico and – rounding out the top five – 485
in South Africa, worth an astounding $12 trillion at
today’s prices.
The US Energy Information Administration estimates
global recoverable gas at 22 600 trillion cubic feet rela-
tive to current global demand of 106,5 trillion cubic feet.
And that’s probably the real problem. We have suf-
ficient gas to supply our total energy needs for 200
years. In South Africa, with recoverable reserves of
485 trillion cubic feet and annual consumption of only
228 billion cubic feet, we have a lot longer. Tapping
this resource, and using it as feed-stock into existing
fuel-from-gas production, could result in some of the
cheapest energy and fuel in the world. It could trigger
a boom the likes of which we can, Jacob Zuma willing,
scarcely imagine.
Natural gas is not a solution to global climate disrup-
tion. The continued environmental antagonism to all
forms of energy production development means that only
the most low risk are likely to receive investment. And
that means more fracking.
What we should hope is that natural gas reduces
coal use and buys time until the real zero-carbon energy
breakthroughs can happen.
6 Chemical Technology • January 2013