Research conducted by Shortlist and FSD Africa, with analysis from the Boston Consulting Group, and recently released in the report titled Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa, looks at potential new direct job creation of 12 ‘green’ sub-sectors of the economy by 2030. It forecasts up to 3.3 million new direct green jobs could be created across the continent by 2030, with most in the renewable energy sector, particularly the solar energy sector. The study, the first in-depth analysis of workforce needs within major green value chains over the next five years, provides detailed forecasts for five focus countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, which together account for more than a fifth (22%) of new jobs, and in key sectors such as renewable energy, e-mobility, agriculture, construction and manufacturing.
The research emphasises the need for substantial investment in skills development and workforce mobilisation.
Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa reinforces the critical importance of a skilled workforce as an input to accelerate African green industries, emphasising the need for substantial investment in skills development and workforce mobilisation. The report also highlights that the millions of jobs created in the green revolution can contribute to the formalisation of African economies, and the inclusion of significant sectors of the population in stable systems of remuneration, social security and taxation for the first time.
Based on the findings, the report outlines key strategies required to cultivate Africa’s green jobs ecosystem: from targeted investments in high-potential sectors and value chains, to the fostering of cross-sector collaboration among governments, private sector, educational institutions and investors, and the development of comprehensive support policies for green sectors. The report also calls for further analysis and detail of labour demand in key value chains to identify Africa’s current skilled labour supply and potential gaps.
Some experts have suggested that up to 100 million green jobs could be created by 2050. This report takes a more near-term realistic look at the job creation potential of just 12 specific sub-sectors up to 2030. The analysis is intended to guide near-term investments and policy decisions in universities, among workforce development actors, and governments to ensure the mobilisation of the right skills and workforce to meet the needs.
Significantly, it predicts that 60% of the employment generated by the green economy over the coming six years will be skilled or white collar in nature. Within this, 10% constitute ‘advanced jobs’ (highly skilled, requiring university degrees to fulfil), a further 30% are projected to be ‘specialised’ (requiring certification or vocational training), and 20% will be more administrative. These types of jobs tend to attract higher salaries and would, therefore, play a role in spurring the growth of the middle class in countries hosting the high-growth sectors. Important also is the stability of the unskilled jobs created – which will offer ladders up the employment scale for individuals whose employability can be enhanced by access to training and experience.
Mark Napier, CEO of FSD Africa said, “There is a cross-sector effort across Africa to spur employment and sustainable development, but stakeholders lack a shared, granular understanding of where the green jobs are going to come from. This report offers a methodology for forecasting green jobs which allows us to get practical about where we need to invest to make these jobs happen.”
Paul Breloff, CEO of Shortlist added, “This is the first public report that considers human capital and talent seriously as an important input to green economic growth, and as a positive outcome – in terms of millions of new, direct jobs. Now, policymakers and funders and workforce developers need to step up to meet this near-term demand with effective training, apprenticeships, and job/skill matching, with a view to achieving Africa’s green promise.”
Further key findings:
- South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria represent the highest job creation potential (16%), due to population, gross domestic product (GDP) and industry maturity.
- The renewable energy sector alone is expected to generate up to 2 million jobs (70% of the total) of which 1.7 million will be in the solar energy sector.
- Solar energy is noted as the most important contributor to green jobs in South Africa (140 000 jobs) and Kenya (111 000 jobs).
- The hydroelectric sector is forecast to be the leading employer in the DRC (16 000 jobs) and Ethiopia (33 000).
- Agriculture and nature are forecast to produce up to 700 000 jobs (25% of total), of which more than half (377 000) will come from climate smart agriculture technology.
Shortlist, established in 2016, is a talent and impact advisory firm that provides recruitment services and technology for leadership hiring and large-scale workforce innovation programmes across African startups, social ventures, and mission-driven organisations serving a range of progressive sectors.
FSD Africa, established in 2012 and based in Nairobi, is a specialist development agency, a non-profit company funded by UK aid from the UK government. It works with governments, business leaders, regulators, and policymakers to design and build programmes that aim to make financial markets work better for everyone and for Africa’s future.
The Boston Consulting Group is well established globally – founded in 1963 and with offices in over 50 countries it employs a diverse team of more than 30 000 people who bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives to provide management consulting solutions to clients. In Africa BCG has offices in: Cairo, Casablanca, Johannesburg, Lagos, and Nairobi, bringing together a team of nearly 600 collaborators.
For more information visit: www.bcg.com/Africa
