South Africa’s decarbonisation debate often starts from the premise that coal must be replaced. In principle, the direction is clear. In practice, the reality is more complex.
Coal still underpins more than 80% of the country’s electricity generation and nearly three-quarters of total energy consumption – a level of dependence that cannot be unwound quickly, particularly in energy-intensive industries.
Manie de Waal, CEO of Energy Partners, says industrial heat in South Africa remains heavily coal-dependent, not by preference, but by necessity.
“For businesses reliant on high-temperature process heat, coal is a function of cost and availability,” says de Waal. “And these structural realities don’t shift as quickly as policy or ambition.”
Heat generation may account for roughly 10% of operating costs, he notes, but its role is disproportionately critical. "Without reliable heat, production stops."
The alternatives aren’t ready… yet
Although renewable power, alternative fuels and storage technologies are advancing rapidly, de Waal’s view is that they remain far from providing a like-for-like substitute for coal across all industrial applications.
LPG and LNG are cited by some as the most viable near-term replacements, but de Waal warns they face the same constraints – cost and security of supply – reinforcing coal's persistence. South Africa is approaching a structural gas shortfall, with supply from Mozambique's Pande-Temane fields expected to decline towards 2028, increasing reliance on imported gas and the price volatility that comes with it.
Biomass and biomethane may be seen as long-term solutions, but de Waal cautions that their applicability is highly site-specific, feedstock supply chains are constrained, and they introduce handling and combustion complexity that differs materially from coal.
Electrification remains an option but carries significant cost implications to meet the need for high temperatures.
“Businesses are looking to decarbonise, but questioning how to do so without introducing unacceptable operational or financial risk.
“Fuel decisions,” he says, “cannot be made in isolation. Cost, supply stability and system performance remain tightly linked, and production continuity is fundamental. “
In this context, de Waal says coal remains one of the most accessible and logistically dependable fuel sources in the country, particularly for inland operations where alternatives are either unevenly distributed or economically marginal.
Domestic gas infrastructure remains uneven, with viable access limited to specific industrial corridors.
“The implication is a growing reliance on imported gas, exposing users to global pricing dynamics and logistics constraints,” says de Waal. “This introduces cost volatility and supply risk at a scale that many industrial operators are not positioned to absorb.”
Some users are exploring liquid fuels or electrification, but both pathways continue to carry significant cost implications, particularly where high-temperature heat is required.
Start with what's there
De Waal’s view is that the first credible step in most industrial decarbonisation pathways is not immediate fuel switching, but integrated system-level optimisation. “Though many businesses cannot move away from coal, the technology exists to cut emissions substantially.
“We’ve seen businesses reduce coal usage by 8% to 15% through these interventions. They aren’t theoretical improvements, but measurable reductions in fuel consumption, emissions intensity and operating costs.”
Service models strengthen this further by shifting performance and optimisation responsibility to specialist providers and enabling sustained efficiency gains over time.
“A credible carbon strategy must reflect the reality that businesses are operating within,” de Waal says. “The immediate opportunity lies in extracting measurable efficiency gains from existing systems, while simultaneously investing in the technologies required to transition to a lower-carbon future.
“For South African industry, the transition will not be linear. But it can still be deliberate, measurable and economically grounded.”
For more information visit: energypartners.co.za
