The National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA) shared its updated Transmission Development Plan, TDP 2024, at a public forum, as required, on 30 October 2024.
TDP 2024 sets out the scope of work planned for the strengthening and extension of the transmission grid over the next decade.
In his opening address Segomoco Scheppers, Interim Chief Executive Officer of the NTCSA, reminded all in attendance that Eskom did not host a TDP Public Forum in 2023, as it had applied for and was granted an exemption for that year by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA). This decision was made due to the ongoing development of the new Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE). Additionally, the generation capacity assumptions outlined in TDP 2022 extended beyond the IRP 2019 period, so no major changes were anticipated for the five-year planning horizon in transmission infrastructure.
In place of the usual TDP Public Forum, Eskom last year held a Transmission Development Plan Implementation Forum to update stakeholders and interested parties on the progress made to date and to address the accelerated rollout needed for South Africa’s energy security and the energy transition.
Scheppers highlighted upfront that TDP 2024 was being presented by the newly established National Transmission Company South Africa, which began operating from 1 July 2024 as an independent, wholly owned subsidiary of Eskom Holdings. He flagged this in itself as a significant milestone in the country’s electricity supply industry, following a long and complex unbundling process that involved collaboration with the government, lenders, and other key stakeholders.
“As we embark on this new chapter for South Africa’s electricity supply industry, the NTCSA will play a pivotal role in maintaining and ensuring the reliability of the transmission network, expanding and modernising the network, and ensuring non-discriminatory access to all market participants. With the recent enactment of the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act (ERAA), NTCSA is fulfilling a legislative requirement and enabling the rollout of critical transmission infrastructure to connect new generation capacity and secure South Africa’s energy future.
At the official launch of the NTCSA on 7 October 2024, the company shared its vision: to be a world-class enabler for a thriving power market benefitting people, the economy and the environment. This vision is anchored by four strategic objectives:
- Delivering reliable and sustainable access to affordable power
- Creating an inclusive and competitive electricity market
- Ensuring a financially sustainable business
- Achieving digital transformation for efficiency and effectiveness.
These objectives will be supported by building strong relationships with key stakeholders, clear internal governance, world-class talent, and a high-performance culture.
Recapping TDP 2022
Before outlining the scope of work envisaged in TDP 2024, which looks at the next decade 2025 to 2034, Scheppers recapped some of the key points of TDP 2022. It anticipated 53 GW of new generation capacity by 2032, with nearly 39 GW expected from renewable sources such as solar PV and wind. It pointed to the need for 14 200 km of extra-high voltage transmission lines and 170 transformers, providing 105 000 MVA of capacity, to strengthen existing infrastructure and in new build.
He also set out further progress made since the 2023 TDP Implementation Forum. He noted that there are 61 projects now in the execution phase, which will unlock about 30 000 MW of new generation connection capacity by 2030. Of these 61 projects, 31 projects are currently under construction and will deliver 1 445 km of transmission lines and 16 945 MVA of transformer capacity to enable the safe and reliable connection of nearly 16 000 MW of generation by 2028. The remaining 30 projects in the execution phase are in procurement and will enable nearly 14 000 MW of new generation connection by 2030.
Scheppers highlighted that the NTCSA has also identified 47 priority projects that can be fast-tracked to accelerate delivery on the TDP. These projects are expected to unlock 37 GW of new generation capacity by FY2033. Notably, the number of projects in the definition phase – the last stage before execution – has increased from five in FY2022 to 22 in FY2023. “This reflects our commitment to advancing these projects,” he said.
And he added: “I want to take this moment to thank the NTCSA team for their hard work and dedication in safely expediting the implementation of the TDP.”
A closer look at TDP 2024
One of the main changes in TDP 2024 is that it projects an increase in new generation capacity, to 56 GW, that will need to be integrated into the transmission network between 2025 and 2034, a step up from the 53 GW projected in TDP 2022. This will need 14 500 km of new transmission lines and 210 transformers, providing 133 000 MVA of capacity. It points to a fivefold increase in delivery over the next 10 years compared to the previous decade. To date, the NTCSA has approved R112 billion in capital expenditure for delivery of the TDP programme over the next five years.
“We recognise the magnitude of the challenge,” Scheppers said, “and delivering on these targets requires a fundamentally new approach. We are working closely with the government, private sector, and stakeholders to implement a hybrid delivery model that includes in-house delivery, Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC), Procurement and Construction (PC), and Independent Transmission Projects (ITP). This hybrid model is aimed at maximising capacity without overburdening our balance sheet or the fiscus. “
He flagged some concerns regarding supply chain challenges, locally and internationally, and outlined steps the NTCSA has taken to address these and keep TDP implementation on track. He also highlighted the company’s commitment to local economic development, noting that TDP 2024 presents a unique opportunity for localisation and industrialisation.
In addition to delivering on the planned expansion of the transmission grid, he said, the NTCSA is committed to operating, maintaining and renewing its existing assets. With the necessary expertise and resources, it aims to ensure the continuing reliability of the grid, as it invests in its long-term resilience.
In closing Scheppers acknowledged the input of all stakeholders, saying: “Together, we can create an electricity supply industry that best meets South Africa’s power needs.
“The NTCSA’s purpose is to connect Southern Africa to its power and potential. As we move forward, we trust that we can count on your unwavering support to make this a reality.“
For more information visit: www.ntcsa.co.za
