Recently presenting its Summer Outlook for the period 1 September 2025 to 31 March 2026, Eskom forecasts no load shedding. This marks a significant recovery from last summer’s 13 days of load shedding, when electricity was supplied 96% of the time, due to the delayed return of some units from planned maintenance.
It follows from the 2025 winter period ended 31 August with only 26 hours of load shedding across four evenings, a notable improvement to supplying electricity 97% of the time. The utility said this performance reflects the progress made in its Generation Recovery Plan and deliberate intensified maintenance resulting in continued improvements in plant performance.
It also highlighted that the current summer outlook represents a significantly greater improvement compared with the 176 days of load shedding during the 2023/24 summer, when electricity was available only 17% of the time.
Eskom noted that compared to the start of last summer, of 2024/25, supply and demand interventions implemented subsequently have added ~4 000 MW of extra capacity to meet expected demand this summer.
Structural improvements in generation
The Summer Outlook is supported by ongoing recovery and structural improvements in Eskom’s generation fleet as a result of the focused implementation of its Generation Recovery Plan.
Key factors
- Since 2023, a total of 7 800 MW of capacity has been restored through the completion of long-term outages and new builds, including 1 400 MW from Medupi Unit 4 and the addition of Kusile Unit 6 this year.
- A reduction of about 1 900 MW in peak planned maintenance this summer, following the completion of major planned outages during 2024 and early 2025, allows for smoother execution.
- The Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has increased from 55% in FY2023 to 60.6% in FY2025, with the year-to-date EAF at 61.1%, reflecting a 6.1% improvement over the past two years. These figures exclude Kusile Unit 6, which is contributing to the grid but is not yet in commercial operation.
- Expenditure on diesel generators has been reduced from R33 billion in FY2024 ending 31 March 2024, to about R17 billion in FY2025, ended 31 March 2025.
An additional 930 MW of capacity is expected to come online from Koeberg Unit 1 when it is returned to service this month, following long-term operation maintenance.
Interventions delivering measurable results
While setbacks did occur with some delays in returning units from outages, leading to 13 days of load shedding last summer and 26 hours this past winter, targeted interventions are continuing to deliver measurable improvements. By the end of August 2025:
- Unplanned outages dropped to 10 100 MW in August, with a low of 6 900 MW recorded on 23 and 24 August – the lowest levels since September 2020
- The EAF reached 66% in August 2025, up 10% since April 2025, with 38 units over 80% and an average monthly increase of 2.6%, alongside increased planned maintenance
- Diesel usage has steadily declined, falling from a load factor of around 16.02% load in April to just 1.84% in August.
“This positive projected load shedding-free Summer Outlook is the result of the progress achieved with the expertise and dedication of the Eskom Guardians over the past three years and the associated support from the government-led initiatives. It shows that our strategy is delivering on our commitment to achieving energy security, supporting the country’s socio-economic programmes, and positioning Eskom as an investable, sustainable company ready to compete in the marketplace,” said Eskom Group Chief Executive, Dan Marokane.
“The structural shift in the performance of the generation fleet has, at the same time, delivered cost efficiencies, with savings in diesel spend of some R16 billion in the last financial year. We are currently increasing our focus and capacity to drive further efficiencies across Eskom through primary energy optimisation, procurement efficiencies, digital transformation, and capital productivity, together with revenue growth opportunities,” Marokane added.
“The disciplined execution and dedication shown by the Eskom teams have ensured the best winter period performance in recent years and laid a solid foundation for a positive summer plan,” said Eskom Group Executive for Generation, Bheki Nxumalo.
“Our recovery of generation capacity, improved plant performance, and operational excellence are stabilising the national grid and enhancing service delivery. Reduced load shedding and the improved EAF demonstrate that our interventions are delivering results for South Africa,” Nxumalo said.
Building for the future
As it consolidates its gains in generation recovery, Eskom is addressing distribution challenges and accelerating transmission projects to secure South Africa’s energy supply.
Key priorities in this regard include:
- Implementing interventions to advance the plan focused on operational reliability and sustainability
- Through the NTCSA, rolling out projects under the Transmission Development Plan (TDP) that will unlock 56 000 MW of new capacity over the next decade
- By March 2026, Eskom aims to reduce load reduction by up to 20% and eliminate it within two years by:
- Tackling electricity theft and removing over 600 000 illegal connections
- Installing 7.2 million smart meters, with ~880 000 already deployed
- Upgrading the network where necessary
- Registering more households for free basic electricity.
At the same time, the national utility is laying the foundation for a more competitive and sustainable electricity sector by:
- Expanding transmission to integrate renewables and support economic growth
- Driving the development of the South African Wholesale Electricity Market (SAWEM)
- Managing the energy transition to balance affordability, security of supply and sustainability
- Protecting consumers through cost optimisation, fair tariffs, and reduced load reduction by upgrading infrastructure and tackling theft.
Eskom remains committed to providing a stable, reliable, and sustainable electricity system that underpins South Africa’s economic growth and the energy transition.
Alongside the good news, it is important to flag a significant caution in that municipalities’ debts owing to Eskom continue to climb – now beyond the R1 billion mark – with no practical solution yet in sight. This leaves the national utility vulnerable.
For more information visit: www.eskom.co.za
