The results of latest South African Renewable Energy Grid Survey (SAREGS) point to a strong and growing pipeline of development projects in the renewable energy sector, including solar, wind, battery storage and hybrid projects, plus support for ancillary services.
The annual SAREGS provides a valuable guide for the NTCSA and critical insights for planners, the market and all contributors.
The results of the 2025 survey were presented by the NTCSA on 27 October 2025 in a session co-hosted by the NTCSA (National Transmission Company South Africa), SAPVIA (the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association) and SAWEA (the South African Wind Energy Association). These parties work together to conduct the survey annually with members of the respective industry bodies playing an important part in providing the information on where new projects are planned, using which technologies, and over what timeframe, which goes into determining grid transmission requirements over the near- to longer-term.
This year more inputs were received from 673 respondents, significantly up from 483 respondents a year ago.
Presenting the results of the survey, Ronald Marais, Senior Manager for Strategic Grid Planning at the NTCSA, thanked all the contributors for their input and noted that the SAREGS is an important element feeding into the Transmission Development Plan which is reviewed and updated annually by the NTCSA.
The results of the SAREGS survey are shared on the NTCSA website and there is an interactive map where visitors can explore different interest areas.
Highlights of the survey
Planned projects indicate 60 to 70 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy development in the near-term. Classified as Type A projects, these are projects with all plans in place, EIAs approved, and ready to roll out, pending financial close.
A further 30 to 45 GW is indicated in mid-term projects, that is, to 2035. These are Type B projects, gearing up to move forward through the required approval and financing processes.
And over the longer term, another 41 to 103 GW of potential renewable energy development is under consideration.
Together, these planned projects amount to an overall pipeline of some 220 GW of interest in developing renewable energy in South Africa.
The projects span all technologies: solar PV, wind, standalone batteries, and hybrid solar or wind and battery energy storage systems. Solar PV continues to be the predominant technology.
The survey reflects the geographical location of the planned projects, by technology and by type. This information can then be mapped in relation to the regional transmission corridors and substations of the national grid.
Interestingly, the survey shows growth more widely across different provinces of the country, notably in the North West, Limpopo and Mpumalanga (primarily wind energy), and the Free State, with demand still strong in the Northern, Western and Eastern Cape but static in Gauteng.
From the indicated readiness/timing of the planned projects by Type A, B or C, the NTCSA can also gauge timing of the need for new transmission substations to be built. Marais noted that MTSs typically handle about 1 400 MW of power per substation. Hence, the NTCSA can figure out where new substations will be needed and when, also taking account of the technologies to be used in the respective projects and their particular demands/impact on the grid.
Marais also noted a greater readiness from private sector players to provide ancillary services which would include reserves, black start capabilities, and reactive power supply, using different technologies.
As well as providing a valuable guide for the NTCSA, the annual SAREGS provides critical insights for planners, the market and all contributors.
Looking ahead
In the Q&A session following the presentation of the results, Marais emphasised that a key focus for the NTCSA is strengthening the grid, to control voltage levels and voltage angles, with a further key focus on enabling grid flexibility. Without flexibility, the new input from renewables that can be integrated into the grid is limited.
With regard to the recently released Integrated Resources Plan, IRP 2025, Marais confirmed that the survey showed renewable energy components of the plan could readily be met.
And looking beyond the country’s preoccupation with supplying enough electricity to meet demand consistently and sustainably, Marais highlighted another potential concern.
He pointed out that the near-term interest in renewable energy development amounts to 72 GW (on the upside), whereas the forecast load for the near term is, comparatively, 20 to 24 GW. This means the rollout of renewables projects will need to be contained to meet electricity demand; and/or the economy and in turn electricity demand will need to grow more strongly than is currently forecast: if electricity supply from new renewables build were to surpass demand, the value of the output (and the investment) would fall to zero.
For more information visit: www.ntcsa.co.za
