Metals Focus, a leading precious metals consultancy, announced the publication of Precious Metals Investment Focus 2025/2026, its flagship annual report on investment in gold, silver and platinum group metals.
The report features comprehensive historical data and a forecast for 2025/26.
Highlights of the Precious Metals Investment Focus include:
- Gold: Gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, with the metal likely to challenge the $5,000 level. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, a weaker dollar, and declining real interest rates are seen as key drivers. Investor demand will be further supported by geopolitical tensions and continued official sector buying, even if below record levels. As a result, the annual average price is forecast to rise by 33% year-on-year (“y/y”) to around $4,560.
- Silver: Silver is set to benefit from many of the same drivers as gold, including policy uncertainty and robust investment demand. Persistent physical tightness in the London market and resilient bar and coin buying, particularly in India, should offer additional support. While gold may regain leadership later in the year as supply constraints ease, silver is forecast to break above $60 in mid-to-late 2026, with an average annual price of $57.
- Platinum: Platinum has rallied over 80% year-to-date, supported by gold’s strength and market tightness linked to trade disruptions and localised stockholding. The market is expected to record a fourth consecutive deficit in 2026, though price action is increasingly driven by investment and liquidity dynamics. The annual average price is forecast to rise 34% y/y to $1,670.
- Palladium: Palladium has joined the broader rally, gaining over 70% so far this year. Price strength has been boosted by tariff risks, including a Section 232 probe and anti-dumping petition in the US. A temporary spike to around $2,000 is possible in early 2026, before fundamentals reassert. The annual average price is projected at $1,340, up 20% y/y, amid another, though narrowing, market deficit.
- Minor PGMs: Deficits across the minor PGMs are expected to narrow in 2026 on stronger secondary supply and softer demand in select sectors. Rhodium’s market will remain tight despite a smaller deficit, with prices forecast to average $7,500, up 23% y/y. Ruthenium is projected to average $780, up 5%, while iridium should rise modestly to $4,600 as its deficit nearly disappears.
Extract from the report:
Gold’s strength continues to reflect an extremely positive macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop for safe haven assets, coupled with concerns towards other safe havens. In our view, the single most important factor has been uncertainty around US trade policy. The fluidity of tariff announcements and the prospect of further measures have complicated planning for companies and governments around the world and produced ever fatter macroeconomic tail-risks.
This fuelled concerns that inflation in the US could prove stickier than hoped if tariffs keep import prices elevated and supply chains unsettled, potentially at the same time as growth is hit, cost pressures squeeze margins and uncertainty hampers capex. Combined, these reinforce a non-trivial stagflation tail risk; historically a supportive backdrop for gold, as both a hedge against price instability and a portfolio diversifier.
There are also mounting signs of cooling in parts of the US economy which, alongside the above-discussed uncertainties, have sharpened expectations for rate cuts. Lower real yields and a more benign policy rate path reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, sustaining interest in gold. Layered over this is concern over persistent fiscal deficits, the ongoing and rapid accumulation of US debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve. This raises questions about long-run debt sustainability for the US and, by extension, the dollar’s role as the de facto reserve currency in the future. With few viable alternatives, gold has hugely benefited from this.
Philip Newman, Managing Director of Metals Focus, commented: “We are pleased to release Precious Metals Investment Focus 2025/2026, which looks at investment trends across gold, silver, and the PGMs.
“In 2025, precious metals markets experienced significant price appreciation, driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, trade policy developments, and shifting investor sentiment. Gold and silver were the clear beneficiaries, as declining real interest rates, persistent inflationary concerns, and renewed geopolitical tensions reinforced their safe-haven status. Central banks remained healthy net buyers, further underpinning market strength.”
“Among the PGMs, platinum and palladium also saw sharp gains, supported by tighter market conditions, trade-related supply disruptions, and speculative inflows. Although the longer-term fundamentals for palladium remain challenging, both metals benefited from the broader rally across the precious complex. The minor PGMs, meanwhile, continued to experience narrowing deficits as recycling improved and industrial demand eased.”
“Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 remains constructive across the precious metals spectrum. Persistent policy uncertainty, ongoing fiscal challenges, and elevated geopolitical risks are expected to keep investor interest high. While volatility will remain a feature of these markets, underlying conditions point to another strong year, led once again by gold, which we expect to challenge the $5,000 level.”
