Trevor Raymond, CEO of the World Platinum Investment Council, comments:
“Platinum’s fundamentals remain attractive to investors. The market continues to be undersupplied, and, despite geopolitical headwinds in the Middle East, platinum demand is well insulated. Incoming emissions regulations are supportive of automotive demand, while a renewed focus on regional energy security is reinvigorating interest in hydrogen technologies, a longer-term demand accelerant. We are also seeing platinum already playing a vital role across many technologies underpinning the rollout of AI infrastructure – from optical communications to data storage.”
- Forecast deficit in 2026 deepens to 297 koz
- Further depletion of above ground stocks - just under three months’ worth of cover to meet global demand now expected by the end of 2026
- Total bar and coin investment demand growth to maintain momentum, rising 27% to 718 koz in full year 2026, propelled by a strong first quarter and growth across all regions
- Total platinum demand is expected to reduce 9% year-on-year to 7,674 koz, predominantly because last year’s significant exchange stock and ETF inflows are not expected to reoccur
- Strengthening industrial demand, increasing 9% to 2,238 koz, on the resumption of glass capacity expansions, partially offsets lower automotive and jewellery demand (-2% and -12%, respectively)
- Total platinum supply to increase by 2% as recycling grows 9%, incentivised by higher prices, while mine supply is projected to be flat
The World Platinum Investment Council - WPIC® - publishes its Platinum Quarterly for the first quarter of 2026 with a revised full year 2026 forecast.
The platinum market recorded a surplus of 268 koz in Q1’26. This reflected both year-on-year total supply growth of 18% (+267 koz to 1,736 koz) on unseasonably strong output from South Africa, and a 31% year-on-year reduction in total demand (-659 koz to 1,468 koz), the single largest factor being exchange traded fund (ETF) and exchange stock outflows totalling 374 koz.
Nonetheless, with a number of the Q1’26 trends expected to reverse over the course of the year, the platinum market is forecast to record its fourth consecutive annual deficit in full year 2026 at 297 koz, a modest (+57 koz) increase on our previous forecast. Total demand in 2026 is forecast to be 9% (-757 koz) lower year-on-year at 7,674 koz, mainly due to a reversal in both exchange stock and ETF investment, which are expected to see net outflows of 100 koz each, in contrast to the significant inflows seen last year. Total supply is projected to increase 2% (+137 koz) year-on-year to 7,377 koz on the back of recycling growth.
Above ground stocks are projected to fall to 1,747 koz by year end 2026, providing less than three months’ global demand cover.
Mine supply broadly flat in 2026; given platinum price increase, recycling recovery more muted than anticipated
In Q1’26, mine supply saw a 22% (+239 koz) year-on-year increase to 1,320 koz, flattered by an exceptionally weak and disrupted Q1 in the prior year as well as maintenance rescheduling which boosted Q1’26. Recycling grew 7% year-on-year to 416 koz (+28 koz), although it fell short of expectations. While higher prices are resulting in more spent catalysts being collected, the amount of recoverable platinum group metals (PGMs) extracted from each catalyst (known as its loading) is lower than in previous years, partly offsetting the benefit of higher volumes.
In full year 2026, mine supply is expected to be broadly flat year-on-year at 5,551 koz as modest gains in South Africa are offset by declines elsewhere. Recycling is forecast to rise 9% (+147 koz) to 1,826 koz, although downside risks exist as recyclers continue to face working capital constraints due to markedly higher PGM prices, and the trend for lower loadings and recoveries per catalyst, as noted above, persists.
Automotive demand resilient supported by hybridisation and heavy-duty trends
Automotive platinum demand declined by 6% year-on-year (-46 koz) to 720 koz in Q1’26. In full year 2026, this is expected to moderate to a 2% year-on-year reduction (-72 koz) to 2,959 koz, despite headwinds from current global macroeconomic uncertainties and oil-shock concerns in relation to the current crisis in the Middle East.
A projected 8% reduction in pure internal combustion engine (ICE) light-duty vehicle production will be mostly offset by a 12% increase in hybrids, with additional support coming from the ICE heavy-duty segment in the US and India.
Higher precious metals prices and cost of living concerns impact jewellery demand
In Q1’26 jewellery demand contracted by 13% year-on-year (-71 koz) to 461 koz, with weak underlying volumes across most regions outweighing pockets of strength in the European luxury market. In China, the quarter was especially weak, with platinum jewellery demand falling 42% year-on-year. The decline was driven by numerous factors working in tandem: higher platinum prices, weaker consumer sentiment, continued destocking across the jewellery supply chain and a shift from large, quasi-investment pieces to investment bars. The removal of the 13% VAT rebate for platinum delivered via the Shanghai Gold Exchange from 1st November 2025 also impacted demand.
In full year 2026, global platinum jewellery demand is forecast to fall 12% year-on-year (-256 koz) to 1,958 koz, as higher platinum prices and cost of living pressures weigh on demand. Demand in Europe, which is projected to reach another record high, and a return to growth in India (+5%), will be unable to offset reductions in the US (-7%), Japan (-5%) and China (-43%).
Cyclical upswing in glass demand leads return to industrial demand growth
Industrial demand increased by 41% (+150 koz) year-on-year to 513 koz in Q1’26, with glass demand reaching 94 koz during the quarter, following an especially depressed Q1’25 in which glass demand was negative due to plant closures. This gain more than offset weakness in the chemical segment, which declined year-on-year to 116 koz (-4%), and a sharp contraction in petroleum demand to 33 koz (-28% year-on-year).
In full year 2026, a 9% increase in industrial demand is anticipated (+189 koz) to 2,238 koz, led by growth in glass demand (+83% to 377 koz). Increases are also expected across all other sectors with the exception of petroleum (-28%) and the ‘other’ category which is expected to be flat. Since our previous forecast, the full year forecast for petroleum demand has been lowered by 22 koz to 132 koz (versus 182 koz in full year 2025) to reflect the downside risk of disruption to this sector caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
Strong bar and coin demand growth set to continue
Q1’26 saw net disinvestment of 225 koz with significant divergence between outflows from exchange stocks and ETFs (-374 koz in aggregate) and strong bar and coin demand (+149 koz).
In 2026, total investment demand is forecast to reduce by 54% year-on-year to 519 koz. Exchange stocks and ETFs are expected to see net outflows of 100 koz each as tariff-related concerns recede and investors look to take profits on the higher platinum price (when compared to this time last year). While these outflows are relatively modest, they represent a considerable swing versus the inflows seen in 2025. In contrast, total bar and coin investment is expected to jump by 27% (+151 koz) to 718 koz – a six-year high – as platinum’s favourable fundamentals attract interest from value-seeking investors in many regions.
Trevor Raymond, CEO of the World Platinum Investment Council, adds:
“Platinum’s price performance in 2025 and robust levels in 2026 have significantly increased global attention on its investment potential. A far wider cohort of investors is now actively considering platinum’s precious attributes together with its compelling supply and demand fundamentals, as ETF demand in 2025 and this year’s expected bar and coin strength highlight.”
