Trading revenues across power and gas, metals and mining, agriculture, oil and products, and liquified natural gas (LNG) declined slightly from $72 billion in 2024 to $69 billion in 2025—yet remained roughly double pre-pandemic levels—establishing a new normal. As margins stabilize, value is being concentrated among fewer, more sophisticated players.
While AI-based analytics is currently being developed in the industry to deliver margin growth, agentic AI is starting to unlock new economic value by automating post-trade operations and accelerating digital workflows. Early deployments show that redesigning workflows around agentic AI can increase efficiency across support functions by 50-60%, accelerate deal cycles and enable faster data-to-trade decisions.
The report identifies three structural trends underpinning the market: accelerating volatility cycles across commodities, the growing impact of AI on trading operating models and rising investment in trading capabilities – particularly through partnerships.
Roland Rechtsteiner, Partner at McKinsey, commented of the findings: “Shorter volatility cycles are creating a permanent divergence in the industry. Organizations that expand asset optionality by building strategic partnerships and differentiating AI capabilities will secure advantages that could become difficult to replicate. Therefore, a clear view of strategy and execution is critical."
The report further demonstrates that increased volatility and competitive pressure are driving greater investment in trading capabilities across regions. In fact, approximately $20 billion in optimization value remains untapped across oil and gas products. To access this value, organizations are increasingly turning to partnership-led models, in this case, joint ventures and joint book models.
In McKinsey’s market survey of traders, nearly (49%) expressed a preference for partnerships over acquisitions (27%) or organic builds (24%). Joint ventures and strategic alliances can accelerate access to systems, expertise and trading cultures, particularly for asset-backed players. This sentiment remains particularly strong in Asia (78% of participants) and the United States (80%), with metals and mining and oil and gas expected to see the largest increase in trading capability investments.
As commodity markets face increasingly frequent high volatility events and competitive pressure, the report underscores that firms capable of combining access to capital, improved sophistication, and access to physical flows will be best positioned to capture value in the years ahead.
