With the world requiring up to 3 billion metric tons of copper by 2050 to support green energy transitions and developing nations’ infrastructure, far exceeding the 23 million metric tons mined in 2024, pressure on supply chains is mounting. This could drive copper prices above $20,000 per metric ton, nearly double today’s $9,000, incentivising new mines but also risking a flood of substandard products, including cables critical to electrical systems.
This is according to a University of Michigan study published in SEG Discovery, co-led by Adam Simon. The research highlights copper’s pivotal role in electrification, water distribution, and healthcare infrastructure, predicting a need for 78 new mines by 2050 to meet ‘business-as-usual’ growth, let alone ambitious green goals.
“This surge in demand ties directly to South Africa’s solar boom, where over 6,200 MW of rooftop solar was installed by early 2025, a 15% rise year-over-year, per the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA). However, this growth is jeopardised by substandard cables, with one in six fires linked to faulty wiring, as seen in a 2023 Cape Town company headquarters blaze and a 2024 Durban warehouse explosion, causing millions of rands in damages,” says Tertius Ness, chief operating officer of South Ocean Electric Wire (SOEW), a local cable manufacturer.
“South Africa’s booming infrastructure and renewable energy sectors face a possible looming crisis as global copper demand grows, potentially opening the door further to an influx of poor-quality imported copper cables. Local manufacturers have supplied only small quantities of solar cable during this boom period, with imports making up the majority of supply. In many cases imported products have competed on price alone against local manufacturers with often quality compromised,” warns Ness.
He emphasises that quality copper cabling, whether for solar, power grids or telecommunications, is non-negotiable. Substandard imports, often failing BS EN 50618 and SANS IEC 62930 standards, degrade under South Africa’s harsh climate, leading to arcing, overheating and efficiency losses.
Tests like thermal endurance and UV resistance, mandated by these standards, are often bypassed by manufacturers using inferior PVC insulation, shortening lifespans below the required 15 years. Economically, this results in higher repair costs and reduced system output, a risk heightened as copper scarcity drives price increases that could attract low-quality producers, he says.
Ness cautions, “As copper demand surges, the temptation to cut costs with substandard cables will grow. SOEW’s locally manufactured, high-conductivity tinned copper cables with cross-linked polyolefin (XLPO) insulation meet these rigorous standards, ensuring safety and durability.
“By producing locally, SOEW reduces import dependency, lowers costs and supports South African jobs, aligning with the SABS’s push for compliance. The University of Michigan study’s recycling projection, 13.5 million metric tons by 2050, further underscores the need for durable, recyclable cables, an area where SOEW excels.”
He warns that with price hikes looming, consumers and installers must demand transparency in testing and material specs from manufacturers. SOEW advocates for heightened vigilance to protect South Africa’s energy and infrastructure ambitions.
