South Africa may be on the precipice of another self-induced energy crisis, but no one is talking about it openly – either because they don’t know about it or because they were only here for a quick buck and are planning on being far away when the bubble bursts, writes Lance Dickerson, MD at Revov. In short, we may be in the early throes of a silent crisis of rooftop solar and battery backup systems failing.
The billions spent on renewable and backup energy during the mad rush to escape Eskom’s inability to keep the lights on may well be under threat because of suboptimal components, inadequately trained installation crews, incorrect configurations of inverters and batteries and a dearth of local, long-term warranty and maintenance strategies. This situation is far more common than one would have expected – all to keep up with the crazy demand.
As of June 2023, installed rooftop solar capacity was estimated to be at 4,412 MW (4.41 GW), increasing from 983 MW in March 2022, a staggering 349% growth in just over a year. By July 2024, rooftop solar capacity reached 5,791 MW. In 2024, the market size was estimated at 2.12 GW. The solar and battery industry boomed.
But what also boomed was every Tom, Dick and Harry opening up a solar or battery supply business, and the subsequent proliferation of suboptimal batteries and inverters. Coinciding with a global dip in lithium prices, containers were being brought in from China and sold at a lower price than cost for many of the proven brands. Of course, bringing in a container of batteries comes without support and engineering expertise – but, in the name of moving volume, it appears that can was happily kicked down the road.
It may well be cynical, but it is not hard to imagine this being an easy risk to take when the entire rationale behind a business is to cash in on the bubble and then move on to the next big thing. Unfortunately, the people who will pay the ultimate price are the end customers when components start failing.
Now, let’s not assume that every installation of a reputable supplier was done by the best expertise – remember, the demand was through the roof. However, reputable suppliers have the footprint and expertise to correct the mess because it is in everyone’s best interest to do so.
In an environment where demand was unprecedented, even distribution companies started taking on the import and distribution of components, without any experience, infrastructure or long-term vision other than to move as many units as possible. It’s the end-user that pays the ultimate price, especially when the whole gravy train derails and product lines are discontinued. Then, there were many distributors of FMCG products that saw solar components as just another FMCG and bought and sold and moved on. A can of beans is sold, opened, consumed and disposed of. A battery, unfortunately, is not.
This has all led to an unsustainable situation where we are on the precipice of another great energy crisis. But how can we be so sure these components may fail? Well, we just need to look to North America. Cesar Barbosa is a prominent figure in the US solar industry, known for his expertise in solar decommissioning, repurposing, and recycling. He is the Founder and President of NuLife Power Services, a nationally recognised company based in Livermore, California, specialising in the repowering, removal, reinstallation, and decommissioning of ageing solar photovoltaic (PV) systems across the region. He says the US is in a renewables crisis.
He says that on those shores a significant portion of commercial solar systems installed before 2016 are expected to be underperforming or non-operational by 2030. This highlights a looming crisis in the solar industry. He calls it a "silent crisis" of failing rooftop solar systems across America. He attributes this to widespread system failures.
He says that despite the promise of 25 years of performance, many installed systems are failing within 10 years. Several factors are contributing to these failures, he says. Inverters are dying and replacements are not available, wiring and electrical infrastructure were not designed for long lifespans, there’s widespread poor installation quality due to the use of barely trained crews during the initial boom. He points out that in addition to all these problems, there is a lack of adequate maintenance plans and reliable contracts.
The result is that he anticipates an increased risk of electrical faults, fires, hazards, and insurance claims. He said in a recent social media post that addressing this issue through repowering, remediation, or decommissioning is proving to be more complex and expensive than initially expected. According to him, the next challenge for the solar industry is not just installing new capacity but also addressing the failures of the existing systems – in other words a need to clean up the mess.
That’s the US. Let’s turn our attention to South Africa. During the last bout of loadshedding, social media lit up with households and businesses bemoaning the fact that their systems didn’t fire up as expected. It is not unusual to hear people complain that their systems are, simply put, dead. This may or may not be the result of suboptimal components – though it most likely is – but it is also the result of customers having installations set up and then shaking hands and waving the installer goodbye. That’s it, on their own.
What’s really needed is an energy partner – on-the-ground presence to provide the type of technical support, complete with proper warranties, to mitigate against things going wrong. Beyond this, responsible people in the industry need to educate end users on how to maintain their battery performance to prevent degraded capacity. A man in a van who brought in a container just won’t be incentivised to provide this type of support, complete with off-site telematics and proactive monitoring of installations.
As this likely crisis unfolds, it is highly advisable that households and businesses seek out reputable installers who only work with the best, proven brands and battery chemistries. Installations are complex engineering feats and should never be left to unqualified people: beyond not lasting, it can be extremely dangerous. We have the opportunity to fix what may well be a mess in the market, but it requires an industry-wide commitment to best practice, and an acknowledgement that long-term, on-the-ground support is not a nice-to-have luxury, it should be an absolute essential must-have.
