BY: Jessika Bohlmann, Getrude Njokwe, Kehinde Oluwaseun Omotoso, Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu
The country’s economy has historically been heavily reliant on coal. Around 70% of its energy is generated from coal. This makes it one of the world’s most carbon-intensive economies.
To lower greenhouse gas emissions and modernise the energy system, the government is progressing towards renewable energy, enhanced energy efficiency, and the growth of low-carbon industries. This transition is part of South Africa’s commitment to a just energy shift, supported by international partners through the Just Energy Transition Partnership.
The transition is occurring amid persistently high unemployment rates. The official rate stands at 30%. Unemployment among youth is especially severe. In response, policymakers and international organisations have advocated for green industrial development and investment in renewable energy as potential means of creating jobs and promoting inclusive growth.
But the extent to which these opportunities will be equitably distributed remains an open question.
South Africa’s shift towards a greener economy is often depicted by policymakers, international development bodies, and energy transition strategies as fulfilling two aims: reducing carbon emissions and creating more jobs.
But does the data support this claim?
We are economists specialising in labour markets, structural change, and the just energy transition. In a recent research paper, we addressed the question. The study combined South Africa’s labour force survey data with occupational information that identifies environmentally related work activities—green occupations. This enabled us to monitor green employment trends over time and identify which sectors and workers benefit most from the transition.
Our research findings indicate that green employment is indeed expanding. However, the benefits are unevenly distributed. Some sectors and groups of workers are advancing, while others risk being left behind.
South Africa’s commitment to a fair energy transition means that workers and communities impacted by structural change should not shoulder disproportionate costs.
But justice isn't only about supporting workers in declining sectors. It also involves making sure new opportunities are widely accessible.
Where jobs are being created, and where they’re not
What counts as a “green job”?
One of the initial challenges is defining what constitutes a green job. According to the International Labour Organisation, green jobs are decent jobs that help to preserve or restore the environment. They can be found in traditional sectors such as manufacturing and construction, or within new and emerging green sectors like renewable energy and energy efficiency.
In our research, we developed a method to classify green employment in South Africa. We combined South Africa’s occupational classification system, which categorises jobs based on tasks and skills, with international data linking specific work activities to environmental sustainability.
These roles encompass work directly related to renewable energy, energy efficiency, environmental management, waste reduction, and sustainable finance.
This approach enabled us to go beyond broad assumptions and accurately measure where green employment is truly occurring in the labour market.
Our findings indicated that the proportion of green jobs has steadily risen from 12.4% in 2022 to 14.8% in 2024. This suggests that the shift towards a greener economy is in progress. However, it is not progressing evenly across the economy.
Green jobs are concentrated in a handful of sectors:
- utilities, particularly electricity and water
- mining, including environmental rehabilitation and renewable energy components
- construction, especially green buildings and energy-efficient infrastructure
- Here, jobs are being created through sustainability reporting and environmental, social and governance investment activities.
These patterns reflect where regulation, investment and policy signals have been strongest. Government-led initiatives act as major catalysts. Examples include:
- renewable energy procurement
- environmental compliance requirements – including stricter environmental governance – force firms to invest in greener technologies and compliance measures. This creates a direct demand for environmental, technical, and engineering roles.
- sustainable finance initiatives. These are shaping labour demand.
Other sectors show far less green penetration.
The demographic profile of green employment also reveals important patterns. Green jobs are more likely to be:
- held by younger workers
- located in the formal sector; informal workers are underrepresented
- associated with moderate levels of education (including post-secondary or technical qualifications rather than highly specialised professional degrees)
- dominated by men. Gender disparities are noticeable.
This suggests that green growth does not automatically translate into inclusive growth.
Without deliberate policy intervention, existing inequalities may simply be reproduced within new sectors.
What needs to be done
Our findings highlight four policy implications.
Firstly, skills policy is central.
- Many green jobs require specific technical or regulatory competencies. These range from renewable energy engineering and environmental auditing to sustainable finance and compliance expertise.
- If the education and training system does not respond quickly enough, skill shortages could limit job creation. At the same time, workers without access to training may be excluded.
- Active labour market policies, vocational training reforms and targeted upskilling programmes are therefore critical.
Secondly, the transition needs to be sectorally deep.
- Green employment is mainly focused on a few industries. Extending the shift into manufacturing, services, and small-scale enterprises could widen employment opportunities.
This necessitates coordinated industrial, energy, and trade policies. Localisation strategies within renewable energy value chains, for instance, could enhance job creation beyond just installation and maintenance.
Thirdly, informal workers should not be overlooked. South Africa’s informal economy employs millions of people. Yet, as it is currently structured, green employment remains mostly formal.
- Waste pickers, small-scale recyclers, and informal repair services already contribute to environmental sustainability. Supporting and integrating these workers through policy and municipal systems could enhance both environmental and social benefits.
Fourthly, measurement matters.
Green transitions are often discussed in aspirational terms. But policy-making requires evidence.
- Developing strong methods to identify and track green employment enables governments and stakeholders to monitor progress, evaluate distributional impacts, and adapt policies accordingly. Without data, the concept of a just transition remains merely rhetorical.
A green economy can support employment – with the right choices.
South Africa’s statistical system could further improve the measurement of green employment. Statistics South Africa might include questions in the labour force survey that identify environmentally related work tasks, skills, and training. It could also establish a national classification of green occupations and industries aligned with international standards. Improved data would enable policymakers to track the employment impacts of the transition more precisely.
Our findings do not weaken the case for green growth. Instead, they demonstrate that the transition is already changing South Africa’s labour market. However, the process is inconsistent and dependent on existing paths. It depends on where incentives are present, where investment is flowing, and where regulatory frameworks generate demand.
If policymakers want the green transition to cut unemployment and inequality, design matters. A greener economy will not automatically be a fairer one. Ensuring that it is requires deliberate, coordinated action.
