With the growing reality of AI and bots entering the workforce, many are beginning to make predictions about when and how the dramatic changes will occur. The debate about robots replacing human labour has been raging for years, and it's no surprise that electricians are among those who are concerned about their job security.
The period of research and development efforts (R&D) for robots and artificial intelligence (AI) has been in full swing for the past decade. With the number of forecasts from industry leaders predicting a dramatic shift in the labour market in the next two decades which they believe will be brought on by AI and robots, there is a list of jobs which the experts are saying would remain relatively unaffected—at least for the time being.
The assembly and manufacturing sectors have seen the biggest impact so far, as mechanised labour is being employed more and more as a time-saving and cost-efficient option. Martin Ford, the author of the influential book Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, recently delivered his strongest statement about the future of work:
“One area that is safe for people is the kind of job that requires lots of dexterity, hand-eye coordination and flexibility. Think about skilled trade jobs like a plumber or electrician.” He went on to add that nursing – due to the high amounts of human caring and empathy involved – in addition to some unspecified creative jobs (no doubt jobs in the visual arts which require a unique aesthetic approach) would also be safe.
Amidst these growing concerns, it has been the job of politicians to quiet the public's fears about an AI take-over and encourage the public at large, instead, to take a realistic, fair, and balanced approach to these changes, staying informed about the latest developments in the area. Tom Watson, co-chair of the Future of Work Commission – an organisation involved in answering questions related to “how the UK deals with the new technological revolution” – and Deputy of Britain’s Labour Party, gave a reassuring statement on the subject: “Much has been written about the impact of technological change and the dystopian future we could all face as a result of the rise of the robots. It can sometimes feel like we are preparing for a world in which artificial intelligence, algorithms and automation, rather than human endeavour and hard work, will shape every aspect of our society and our economy. That sounds like a frightening prospect. But it needn't be.”
Robots in construction
Professor Lonny Simonian of the California Polytechnic State University spoke to NECA Live attendees about the increasing use of robotics in construction. His 40-minute-long virtual session, titled, “Robots in Construction: Current Use and Outlook for the Future,” presented key research and findings from an ELECTRI International research project on the same topic. More specifically, Simonian discussed the short- and long-term impact that robots could have on the electrical industry.
“The focus of the research is to inform electrical contractors about the developments in robots in construction and to prepare you for their potential future deployment,” said Simonian. “They are in use currently, but reports show they are going to grow by a significant amount.”
Before diving into facts and figures, Simonian first clarified the term ‘robot,’ to the audience, based on IEEE’s description. “As defined by the IEEE, a robot is an autonomous machine capable of sensing its environment, carrying out computations to make decisions, and performing actions in the real world,” he explained.
Next, he detailed the different robot market segments, including:
- Public (defense, security/surveillance, emergency response, public safety, resource management).
- Research and Education (k-12 education, colleges/universities, vocational training, research, exploration)
- Industrial (manufacturing, construction, oil and gas, mining and quarrying, agriculture)
- Commercial (health care and quality of life, utilities, transportation, warehouse distribution, wholesale and retail)
- Consumer (toy and hobby, home health care and/quality of life, social/entertainment, personal transport).
Taking a dive into findings from the ELECTRI International research project, Simonian listed 20 types of robots appropriate to use in construction, including robotic arm, 3D printing, layout, upper-body exoskeleton, snake, materials lift, vehicle, mobile platform, and more.
Simonian then went on to discuss growth projections for robots, citing that one study predicts the construction robotics market will grow from $22.7 million in 2018 to $226.0 million annually worldwide with more than 7 000 robots performing construction work by 2025. According to another study, the global market for construction-related robotics is predicted to reach $470.61 million by the end of 2026 – a compound annual growth rate of 10.4%.
What exactly do these numbers mean for construction industry workers? Citing a third study, Simonian said that “as many as 2.7 million construction positions could be replaced by machines by 2057.” When it comes to the electrical industry in particular, the numbers sound pretty dismal. Specifically, there is automation potential in the workforce of about 42% for electricians. Carpenters and plumbers fare worse at 50%, and operating engineers could see a staggering 88% of their jobs replaced by robots.
“Keep in mind that 2057 is a long way off,” Simonian concluded. “In the immediate future, jobs will not be replaced by automation but rather supplemented by it. Drones capturing BIM information and data are a good example of this, as are autonomous robots performing laser scanning.”
Source: www.ecmweb.com
