The findings of the third annual SA Renewable Energy Grid Survey (SAREGS) were released 19 August 2024 in a virtual media briefing co-hosted by SAWEA, SAPVIA, and the NTCSA. The survey is a collaborative effort involving industry representative organisations SAPVIA and SAWEA, Eskom and the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA), the Energy Council of South Africa, independent power producers and other stakeholders, including municipal utilities.
The SAREG Survey provides a comprehensive view of the demand for grid capacity over the coming three to ten years.
The findings were presented by Ronald Marais, Strategic Grid Planning Manager at the NTCSA, providing a comprehensive view of the demand for grid capacity over the coming three to ten years. The analysis, which is available on the NTCSA’s website, presents the projected renewable energy development around the country, by category – solar, wind, gas and hydro – by timeline, and by location in relation to the existing transmission network regions.
The findings of the survey serve to guide Eskom and the NTCSA in preparing future grid capacity connection assessments and developing its transmission build programme and are used by the renewable energy sector to shape investments. The findings – which, among other things, indicate a project development pipeline of much more power than the country potentially needs – have been broadly welcomed. At 133 GW it is more than double the prospective demand noted in last year’s survey. About 60 GW of this 10-year total is in projects that will be ready to connect within the next three to five years.
Marais noted that the survey this year was well supported by all industry players – with 483 contributions of information made, up from 209 in 2023 – and therefore presents a realistic view of potential development in the renewable energy sector.
Solar PV capacity submissions for prospective grid connections grew most, by 120% to 76 GW, more than the total capacity submitted in 2023.
Speaking for the SA Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA), Frank Spencer said: “We are proud of the results released today. The 2024 SAREGS received a positive response from all players in the renewables space, reflecting the industry's strong commitment to sharing information, which enables targeted and proactive transmission infrastructure development.”
With regard to potential wind energy projects, Santosh Sookgrim, Senior Technical Advisor at SAWEA, said: “The survey reveals substantial growth in wind energy projects, with over 48 GW in various stages of development – a more than 50% increase from 30 GW in 2023.
“Furthermore, the survey shows an expansion of wind energy projects in new regions such as KwaZulu-Natal and additional areas in the Highveld, including in Mpumalanga. This marks a significant positive step forward in the just energy transition and is expected to drive socio-economic growth in these regions.”
Submissions for battery energy storage capacity, mainly in hybrid projects with wind and/or solar also increased substantially by 77%.
Geographically, the survey indicates an interesting shift in the location of development projects. The Northern Cape still sees high demand, increasing by 218% over the 10-year term, and Gauteng sees a nearly 10-fold increase in submissions for prospective grid connections.
The annual survey provides the renewable energy industry with a valuable opportunity to inform and influence grid expansion and planning, benefitting REIPPPP, private generation, and wheeling investment in new generation capacity.
For the NTCSA, the survey provides essential insights into grid access demand which it will use to inform its grid strengthening and expansion planning. Marais also highlighted that the survey this year looks more closely at what the industry will want from the transmission system operator in terms of ancillary services – and this will help the NTCSA in its strategic planning as the country transitions into a new energy environment.
The survey can be viewed on the NTCSA website here.
